This story from BI got my attention
… last week, Brazil held an auction for some offshore blocks in the Atlantic Ocean, once a highly sought-after region, and the results were a failure. Despite the fact that Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Statoil, ExxonMobil, and BP were registered for Brazil’s auction, none submitted bids.
and this is not the only auction that disappointed. Big oil is in serious retrenchment mode and exploration budgets are getting slashed big time. This means that down the road, less oil will come online.